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Chasing a flush on-line – Sometimes the numbers just do not add up!

There’s an age old debate in poker – should you chase a flush? Very first of all we ought to define what we mean here by "chasing a flush on-line."

Chasing anything in Texas hold em poker will be the practice of gambling to stay in a hand in the hope that you simply will produce a better palm, even although you may well have absolutely nothing in the time. So chasing a flush signifies betting that you simply will have the card or card that you just must complete your flush hands around the turn or river. You cannot chase a flush prior to the flop because at that time you only have 2 cards so the flush is not on.

So let us say you’re betting one of the big poker websites on line, you’ve been dealt the Ace and 9 of spades and you have paid to see the flop.

The flop is 2s 7s King of diamonds and one of your opponents comes out wagering strongly with a fair sized raise, what do you do?

Very first of all ask your self what kind of hands you are up against. The possibilities are triples, one more flush draw, a pair of Kings or a total bluff, so as it stands you’re only succeeding towards the bluff with your Ace. Within the other hands should you hit a spade in the last 2 cards you’ve the nut flush and could only lose to a full house or 4 of a kind.

Within the face of it you might assume that statistically you might have about a fifty – fifty probability of hitting your spade, after all there’s 2 cards to come and 4 suits so there must be about a half chance, proper?

Wrong!

You already have two of the spades in your hand and there’s a different two showing within the table, so you know 5 cards and 4 of them are spades. That implies you may have nine spades left accessible out of the forty seven cards you haven’t seen, which is only a 42 per cent opportunity of catching your flush.

When you do bet to the turn and don’t make your flush, what do you do then? You’ve got probably now become pot-committed, you have put so significantly into the pot which you could possibly as nicely bet again to the river unless there’s a major raise or all-in against you, but now your odds of making the flush have dropped dramatically to only 21 per-cent.

But what of that other factor, the mysterious net poker syndrome? What I mean by that is although you statistically have a 42 per-cent possibility of generating a flush, is that what really happens in reality? In the event you played the similar palm in the very same net poker table 100 times would you have a flush forty two instances? From my personal encounter I doubt it. Flushes seem to arrive around a lot much less typically than 42 out of one hundred instances!

That is just my own opinion and I’m sure the poker sites would tell you a various story, but the way I see it is 42 per cent is the incredibly Ideal you’re ever going to receive and you may possibly properly have a great deal less likelihood than that of hitting your flush.

Bottom line? Chasing a flush on line is really a very risky method that sucks you in and over commits you, with out giving you enough of a likelihood of pulling out the winning hand.